Overpopulating the internet
Posted by diedo on March 5, 2008
Well, I guess I wanted to see if anyone beat me to the punch. After Googling for overpopulation and blog I certainly found other concerned people as well as a blog with the same name, however I did not find anyone really compiling information on the topic, so I’ll go ahead as planned. Anyway, I came across a blog post titled The Overpopulation Myth which ofcourse struck my interest. Read my review over at the Blogs page.
The poster, who obviously does not feel overpopulation is a problem, ironically calls himself Agent Smith. This is ironic, because I’m instantly reminded of a Matrix quote by Agent Smith:
I’d like to share a revelation that I’ve had, during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you aren’t actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with its surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply, and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague, and we… are the cure.
Ah, Agent Smith sure is the life of the party. What is the opposite of aptly chosen?
More to the point; his main article was, I felt, largely dedicated to uninteresting semantics, but in the end, especially due to the subsequent, definitely more relevant comments and his replies, it led me to lots of interesting information:
The UN predicts that world population will increase to between 7.8 and 10.8 billion by 2050. The high and medium range projections still show growth at that point, but the low range projection shows an actual decline! I had not expected to find any serious source stating that by some point in the near future, human population would be in decline. Even though its merely a low range projection, It’s still kind of comforting and makes the whole issue seem just a little less gloomy.
I kept on and found more ‘good’ news from the UN, this time from the FAO: It is often suggested that the world may be heading towards shortages of suitable agricultural land. FAO studies suggest that this will not be the case at the global level, although in some regions and areas there are already serious shortages, and these may worsen. In this instance, we’re talking about projections for 2030. So, no major problems by 2030 and also relative decline in the number of hungry people, but definitely economical strains on some developing parts of the world, as well as limit constraints on fisheries. There will be increased reliance on (available) technologies. However, FAO states that land degradation estimates differ enormously and aren’t comprehensive, so it hasn’t taken that into account, as well as large effects due to global climate change.
As a result of the article in question and my subsequent research, my major questions are:
- Will food supply keep up with demand beyond 2030?
- At what point has (or will) the carrying capacity of Earth been (or be) exceeded?
- How will food supply and demand develop beyond 2030? Will they level off/fluctuate/decline or reach some critical mass?
- When will global population likely decline occur, and in what fashion?
